[600MRG] Will 630m N.Am. to VK/ZL start late Feb?

[James Hollander]

Last night's 160m spots by VK3AMZ portend possible upcoming 630m trans-Pacific (TP) WSPR. A 630m TP calendar period may extend late February to late April. 
 
2015-02-03 10:02   K3KQV   1.838077   -27   0   FN00      1   VK3AMZ   QF22fe   16290   260 

2015-02-03 09:50   AB4DF    1.838148   -28   0   EM86ti   5   VK3AMZ   QF22fe   15902   253  

That late February to late April calendar period brackets equinox and represents VK/ZL progress toward 630m local fall conditions. Concurrently, N. America will have higher sun angles for more residual nighttime F-ionization prior to N. Am. summer's high D-layer absorption. 

If this winter's N. Am. 630m conditions have been somewhat poorer than average, that may diminish chances of a 630m TP path. However, 160m N.Am/VK-ZL decodes in next two weeks can be checked to see if they become more frequent with increasing SNRs, which can give an additional positive indication for an upcoming 630m TP path.  The 630m TP path may exist already, but most 630m antennas efficiencies are much lower than 160m stations enjoy.  So 630m TP decodes aren't happening for at least an antenna reason.   

A debatable feature  of 630m TP activity last Aug into October involved some clustering of decodes within plus/minus a day before/after the lunar quarters (1st, full, 3rd, new: moon).  If 630m TP activity occurs late Feb to late April, we can again check for signs of such clustering.                    73,  Jim H  W5EST