[600MRG] Rule of Thumb for N. America to VK 630m WSPR Decodes: Reasoning

[James Hollander]

Please  offer  your comments  and  suggestions.  73, Jim H  W5EST mrsocion at aol.com
    Why do  this?  US FCC Part 5 stations do  experiments. 630m-licensed  hams worldwide  and  US FCC Part 5  630m stations  assess 630m potential, with  USham band a pproval docket pending  at FCC. DX is  one  of the  significant dimensions  of  ham radio.  Hams contribute to  propagation science.
   10 watt US Part 5 TX stations  repeatedly peaked 3dB+  over  -11dB  at  Hawaii. So, US ham power 5 watt EIRP woulddecode  under  2015 prop condx at VK. But 630m  for  US hams  remains FCC-pending.  
   I  have  too l ittle data  to  do  a  Rule of Thumb for  N.Am. to ZL, nor  VK/ZL to Hawaii, nor  whether N.Am.  to  VK  in Februarythru  April will  occur. 
  Why (geophysically) is N.Am.-VK/ZL 630m propagation  succeeding?  Earlier post, I  offered some people’s ideas  but who  knows  why. Prop needs to  take enough N.Am.TX signal to  Pacific Oceaneast  of  Hawaii. On Pacific path beyond, something special, something extrabeyond multihop, needs to  explain  such strong decoded WSPR up  to -20dB SNR  at  VK. 
   Subject to  weather & TX/RX activity, Ruleof Thumb suggests odds favor VK decodes  of  given N.Am. TX station when enough HIdecodes  of  that station e xceed threshold SNR. N.Am. TX paths  do  different  propagation modes into HI than  prop modesinto VK. So, don’t expect  any  timeslot-by-timeslot correlation  of  WSPR SNRs  at  HI  and  VK. Instead, Rule of Thumb employs  accumulated decodes  at HI  and VK.  Method  is  defensible because 1) any  one  station TX/Antenna system is  one  same RF  originating source. 2) Overallproperties  of  ionosphere  that  take signal from N.Am. to  HI bear resemblance, eventhough modest, to  properties  taking signal from  N.Am. to  VK.  --end--