[600MRG] Rule of Thumb for N. America to VK 630m WSPR Decodes

[James Hollander]

   Please  offer  your rule  of thumbcomments  and suggestions!  This idea  canbe  revised  as necessary when more  info comes  in. 
   Congratulations  to  TX stationsWH2XGP (8/15, WA), WH2XND (8/14,15,18, 19, 20, AZ) and WH2XXM (8/18, OK) and RXstations VK2DDI, VK2XGJ and VK3ELV for N.Am.-VK paths already  in  Aug. 2015.Congratulations to TX VK3ELV (8/15, 8/19) and RX WH2XCR (HI) for their successesalready.  73,  Jim H W5EST mrsocion at aol.com
   I venture a  Rule of Thumb for 630mAugust 1 to  October 15 to  SE VK from WSPR TX stations  in continental US,Canada, Mexico. 630m  is  a  mystery band so  anything can happen  any night. VK can’tdecode you  if TX off  the  air. SE VK sunset is  about 0730-0800z. Decodes  in SEVK may happen  in  an  opportunity time window  of common darkness between VKsunset  and local sunrise  at N. Am. TX QTH.
  1. If  Tstorms lie within 1000km(600 mile) radius of VK destination, N.Am-VK decodes  are  unlikely. See  http://wwlln.net/WWLLN_movies/Movie_of_Lightning_in_Pacific_BIG.gif For last hour, scroll http://www.australianweathernews.com/current_radar.htm.  Likewise, expect  no VK decodes thisnight if no VK RX is  active that  has  ever decoded N.Am. Try WSPR database  foractive VK2DDI, VK2XGJ or VK3ELV. http://wsprnet.org/drupal/wsprnet/spots 
  2. If VK RX activity & little/noSE VK Tstorm activity, try WSPR database for active Hawaii 630m WSPR RX (e.g., WH2XCR)this night. If Tstorms do  lie  in 600 mile radius of HI RX, use -14dB instead  of-11dB threshold  in Rule of Thumb next. If no  active HI RX, try for VK anyhow. XXMand XND did that 8/18/15.
  3. RULE  OF  THUMB:  If  given N.Am. TX gets 4+ decodes  at XCR w/SNRs -11dB (-14dB if HI Tstorms) or  more sometime  in N.Am.-VK time window, then  odds  favor that N.Am. TX to  achieve VK decode sometime  in opportunity timewindow too. Even  one strong XCR decode  is  a hopeful sign.
  (In Part 2, I discuss some  reasoning behind  ideas in Part 1.)