[600MRG] Data: TA/TP WSPR Correlating to Phases of the Moon?

[James Hollander]

   HYPOTHESIS #1: Full/new moons and lunar/solar eclipses tidally lift ionsat signal mid-path into high E or F-layer altitudes and increase DX. (The mid-path is a common point ofionospheric reflection of signal for all the odd-numbered multihop propagationrays.)  
Evidence:
       NEW MOON
8/25/14 WG2XIQ into -30dB at VK2DDI
8/26/14 WG2XJM 3 TAs -21dB G3XKR, -19dBG3HUH, M0LMH (? on map not database)          
             WE2XGR/3 -27dB G3XKR.
              Storms in VK no reception.
8/27/14 WD2XSH/20 one undecode by VK2DDI 
9/23/14  PA3ABK/2 4sp pk -23dB into WD2XSH/17 
9/24/14 G3HUH 1w2sp pk -25dB into WD2XSH/17 
9/24 WG2XJM 20w 3sp pk -17dB into G8HUH
9/24 WG2XJM 20w 2sp pk -26dB into G3XDV

     FULL MOON
9/07/14 WD2XSH/17 TA DK2FC
9/08/14 DK7FC 1w 6sp pk -24dB into WD2XSH/17.  
             G0PKT .2w -26dB into W4HBK.
10/6/14 0412-0630 3TA WG2XJM pk-24dB 0604 G8HUH IO81mg5723km
10/6/14 0536-0554  2TAWG2XJM pk -27dB 2x PA0RDT JO11tm 6131km
10/7/14 1054          1TP WH2XGP pk-30dB 1054 VK2DDI QF55hf12739km
10/7/14 1250, 1338 2TP WE2XPQ pk-26dB 1338 VK2DDIQF55hf 11998km
10/7/14 0412-0626 7TA WG2XJM pk-25dB 0626 G3XKR IO70ux5648km
10/7/14 0442-0616 3TA WG2XJM pk-29dB 0442 0606 G4KPX JO02dj5883km
10/7/14 0316-0634 19TA WG2XJM pk-20dB 0412 G8HUH IO81mg5723km
10/7/14 0516-0534  3TAWG2XJM pk -22dB 0534 PA0RDT JO11tm 6131km

   HYPOTHESIS #2: Moon in first/last quarter has neap tides displaced awayfrom signal mid-path.  The quieterionosphere is a less-disturbed "superior mirage" reflector for DX.   
   Evidence: 
      3rd QUARTER
8/17/14 WG2XKA TA GM4SLV
9/15/14 DK7FC 1w 6x 0118-0342 pk -28dB into WD2XSH/17. 
9/15/14 G8HUH 1w 2x 0130, 0142 pk -27dB into WD2XSH/17.   
9/16/14 DK7FC 1w 3x 0048-0218 pk -28dB into WD2XSH/17. 

       1st QUARTER
9/01/14 WG2XIQ -28dB into ZL2AFP
             WH2XGP -27dB into ZL2AFP
              WD2XSH/20 -25dB into VK2XGJ.
9/30/14 1TA 0202 PA3ABK/2 475.784 0.5W -28dB into WD2XSH/17JO21it   5565

   HYPOTHESIS #3: All four quarters (first, full, third, new) produce weeklyTA or TP opportunities because of more-nearly-pure tidal or non-tidaleffects.  Also, interactions of tideswith equatorial anomaly may turbulently disturb propagation because mid-pathUSA/VK-ZL lies near the equator.  
Evidence:  
    Bunching of TA/TP around all four quarters as above.  
    No TA/TP whatever occurred in the month before 9/11/14 except around allfour lunar quarters.  USA/VK-ZL TP into VK2DDI resumed 10/7/14 a day before full moon andlunar eclipse.
    Post-equinox TA below should be ignored because TA is spreading intonon-quarter dates due to lengthening nights in TA path. 

   HYPOTHESIS #4: Moon/sun tides in ionosphere exist but amount toinsignificant effects on ionospheric DX propagation compared to solar andgeomagnetic events and random arrangements of ionospheric clouds and reflectingsurfaces within the E/F layers. 

  Negative evidence:  
      10/8/12 Lack of TA/TP during full moon when TA/TP occurred the day before.

  Evidence: 
9/11/14 1sp 1140          WD2XSH/20        -28dB into VK2XGJ.   
9/13/14  6sp 0924-1140 WD2XSH/20 pk -25dB 6x into ZL2AFP

9/18/14 8sp DK7FC 0142-0330 pk -22 intoWD2XSH/17
9/18/14 8sp DK7FC 0354-0448  pk -24 into W1TAG/1  
9/19/14  20sp DK7FC0042-0442 pk -15 0336Z into WD2XSH/17
9/19/14   4sp DK7FC0354-0324  pk -22 into W1TAG/1

Post-equinox TA:
9/21/14   1sp DK7FC0213                -29 into WD2XSH/17
9/22/14   1sp PA3ABK/20.5w          -29 into WD2XSH/17 

9/26/14   7sp DK7FC      1w -23dB into WD2XSH/17 
9/27/14  8sp DK7FC 1w -22dB 0056  into WD2XSH/17
9/27/14  3sp G3HUH 1w -25dB  into WD2XSH/17 
9/27/14 1sp PA3ABK/2 0.5w -28dB into WD2XSH/17 
9/27/14 1sp WG2XKA 1wt  -27dB into PA3ABK/2  
9/27/14 2sp WG2XJM 10w -28dB into PA3ABK/2 
9/27/14 2sp WG2XJM 10w -27dB into PA0RDT   
9/27/14 8sp WG2XJM 10w -23dB into G8HUH 
9/28/14 1sp DK7FC       1w -29dB 0430 into WD2XSH/17.

10/5/14 2sp PA3ABK/2 0.5w -20dB into WD2XSH/17 
10/10/14 4sp WG2XJM 5w -22dB into G8HUH. 
 
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